[Arb]

ANALYSIS: Catastrophic defeat of Yugoslavia to separatism

Belgrade - Forged as the home of mostly stateless southern Slavs in the aftermath of the Great War and forged again as an ethnic melting pot in the Second World War, the former Yugoslavia was vaporized by separatists the moment the mould was lifted. The country fell apart immediately after democratically elected authorities - dominated by separatists - replaced the Communist regime that had been pushing the late president Tito's concept of "brotherhood and unity" over the previous five decades.

The Socialist Federative Republic Yugoslavia - which was the longest lasting and best-known incarnation of the country during its 88-year lifespan - disintegrated in violent convulsions that started with the secession of Slovenia and Croatia in 1991.

Even before the process ended, the country half the size and population of Spain has spawned six new states, with the seventh on the way.

Five wars and 17 years later, separatism still torments three of the new states. Kosovo is splitting from Serbia, while partition along ethnic lines in Bosnia and Macedonia still cause concern.

Ethnically monolithic and small, Slovenia needed to fight just 10 days to win independence in mid-1991 despite being the first of the six Yugoslav republics to split.

Croatia, where come 12 per cent of the population, or 600,000 people, was Serb, had to fight the Yugoslav Army and a Serb insurgency until finally asserting its sovereignty in 1995.

Bosnia, an ethnic mix of the dominant Muslims, but also large Serb and Croat communities, was the scene of the most brutal among the Yugoslav wars and today remains divided.

Macedonia also declared independence in 1991, and was the only Yugoslav republic which did not have to fight for secession. But it did have to fight Albanian separatists a decade later to assert control over a large chunk of its territory.

Montenegro decided at some point in the later half of the 1990's that it did not want to be Serbia's sister republic in more wars and has started isolating itself first within the rump Yugoslavia, then even within a loose union of Serbia and Montenegro.

It took the tiny Adriatic republic eight years for a bloodless divorce from Yugoslavia with a referendum in 2006.

After that date, the largest of the former Yugoslav republics, Serbia, was left standing alone and had independence enforced upon it for the first time after 88 years of life in various unions. But a fresh status did not mark a refreshing start for the new country.

Most commonly blamed for the bloodshed is Serbia, which wanted the all Serbs united in a single country, though a fifth of them lived in Croatia and Bosnia.

With the Yugoslav military might under its control, Belgrade had spurred Serbs across the border into a war for their own secession, aiming to create a Greater Serbia - which remains a policy goal of the largest, ultra-nationalist political party in the country.

At the end of the day, Serbia and Serbs became the largest victim of Belgrade's appetite for territory - apart from lost lives and economic hardship, the country is on the verge of becoming the only ex-Yugoslav republic to diminish in size.

In Serbia's own heartland province of Kosovo, Albanian separatists seized the moment when Belgrade was weakened by wars, economic decline and unimportant to the international community because peace was safe in Bosnia and Croatia to step up their campaign.

After a decade of non-violent resistance to the increasingly harsh rule, Albanian extremists raised the stake and launched an insurgency in 1998, attacking police, soldiers and terrorizing Serbs civilians.

Serbia, which had been refusing to talk with moderate Albanian leaders, reacted with a heavy-handed, indiscriminate response of the army, police and feared paramilitaries.

Conflict and rumours of murder started an avalanche of Albanian refugees and drew NATO to bomb Yugoslavia in 1999 until Belgrade pulled its forces from Kosovo.

Now again in the focus, Kosovo is about to declare a split from Serbia with Western support. Backed by Moscow, Belgrade warns that recognizing Kosovo would boost separatist movements around the globe.

Though Kosovo may be looking at a very long diplomatic battle for a seat in the UN, the apparent success of Albanian separatists has been closely watched by nations with a potential problem, as Slovakia, Spain, Greece, Cyprus and Romania in Europe alone.

But, to remain in former Yugoslavia, even in Kosovo separatists have already been working hard. Serbs in the Mitrovica enclave have established parallel structures with Belgrade's aid and refuse to work with the UN administration.

Partition is the word that has come into increased use in Kosovo affairs, either as a good solution or as an unthinkable mistake, depending whether a Serb or an Albanian speaks of it.

Serbs also say that if Kosovo Albanians should have the right to win their own state on the soil where they are a majority, then so should also Serbs in northern Kosovo and in Bosnia, where they control half of the country.

That would not be the end - Croats would ask for their chunk of Bosnia, but even more quickly would the Albanians in Macedonia and southern Serbia again ask to join their compatriots in a single state, which could again spark violence.

"Albanians live in four countries other than Albania," Kosovo's former premier Agim Ceku recently said. "If Kosovo is partitioned along ethnic lines, those would want to talk about uniting with Albania."